Market Alert: Warns of Price Crisis Amid Changing Global Timber Dynamics

On March 4, 2025, the General Administration of Customs of China issued a notice suspending the import of U.S. logs due to quarantine issues, signaling significant repercussions for the global timber market.

Shifts in the Global Log Market

The United States, China’s second-largest supplier of logs, supplied 2.24 million cubic meters in 2024, accounting for 65% of China’s total log imports. Major species include oak, Douglas fir, spruce, and hemlock. With the suspension of imports, China faces an immediate supply gap, particularly in high-end hardwoods like black walnut. The inability of U.S. lumber to fully substitute exacerbates the situation, driving up prices for alternative sources from countries such as New Zealand, Canada, and Germany. Costs for imports like New Zealand radiata pine are expected to rise, thereby increasing domestic timber spot prices.

Impact on the Flooring Industry

Species like red oak and black walnut are crucial for the wood flooring industry. The logging ban intensifies supply shortages and may lead to substantial price hikes. This undoubtedly increases cost pressures for flooring manufacturers relying on U.S. hardwoods, potentially affecting product pricing and consumer choices in the end market.

Impact on the United States

The U.S. timber industry may face a situation akin to Australia’s in 2020 when log imports were suspended, resulting in a 99% drop in exports and over $500 million in annual losses. The direct economic impact of the export suspension could exceed $800 million for the United States, severely affecting forestry states like Oregon.

Long-term Trends and Opportunities

This policy-induced market volatility presents an opportunity for industry upgrades. Future trends may include:

Diversified Supply Chains: Reducing dependence on single countries by enhancing regional cooperation to strengthen supply chain resilience.

Accelerated Green Transition: Promoting environmentally friendly materials and circular economy models could significantly increase the use of recycled timber.

Increased Industry Concentration: Small and medium-sized enterprises face technological pressures, while industry leaders consolidate market share through resource integration.

Conclusion

China’s temporary halt on U.S. log imports will cause market price fluctuations and necessitate supply chain adjustments. However, this policy may drive structural optimization and sustainable development within the industry in the long term. As a wood flooring supplier, Kelaiwood recognizes the profound impact of this policy, particularly the price pressures on species like red oak and black walnut. Customers with current procurement needs should remain vigilant.